Don’t be alarmed by numbers jump when we actually test for coronavirus

I’ve been accused of being an alarmist. Which I’m totally okay with in this situation. There’s plenty of reason for alarm and action.

But one thing I think we need to be aware of and not be alarmed by is this: the US virus count is going to go up dramatically in the next week. This isn’t because of a new bloom in disease. It is out there and circulating. It’s because we are about to start testing on the scale we should’ve been doing for a month.

Test, isolate and treat.

South Korea is the best model for this. They have tested a higher proportion of the population than anyone. And, because of it, they had a huge spike in cases about 2 weeks ago. But, they, more than any other country, have a handle on the level of infection and are taking appropriate action.

We are about to see some big numbers. This isn’t the virus spreading at a ridiculous rate, it’s us finding where it is. That will give us a course forward.